Ross Farrelly

First published in The Canberra Times , 22nd September 2008 One of Kevin Rudd’s favourite mantras is that he wishes to develop “evidence based” policy. That is, he backs policies which have enough supporting evidence to suggest that they will produce their desired effect. However, it is well known in scientific circles that there is one gold standard technique for discovering such a causal relationship between cause and effect– the randomised trial. A randomised trial starts with a hypothesis – a statement of fact which is to be tested in the trial. Stating a hypothesis forces policy makers to move from a vague statements of intent to a specific measurable outcome they wish to achieve. The hypothesis is then tested by randomly selecting two groups of people. One group receives the treatment and one group does not. The power of the randomised trial lies in the fact that the two groups are as alike as possible in every respect except for whether or not they receive the treatment. If afte

First published,   Policy Magazine , Spring 2008. Policymakers claim to develop programs that will benefit citizens. They claim, either implicitly or explicitly, to have certain knowledge of the causal relationship between the actions they plan to take and the outcomes they wish to achieve. This claim is emphasised when, as Prime Minister Kevin Rudd does so often, they express their wish to develop ‘evidence-based’ policy. It is well known in scientific circles that there is one gold standard technique for discovering such a causal relationship—the randomised trial. If policymakers want to be able to claim that their policies will work, they should subject them to randomised trials beforehand. Randomised trials present the policymaker who genuinely wants to know how to make a difference with a powerful and irrefutable tool to put his or her theories to the test and to draw fact-based conclusions from them.     Randomised trials are the least random and most scientific method known