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The Predictive Power of Statistics

first published in Policy Magazine , Autumn 2008 A review of Super Crunchers by Ian Ayres On a recent visit to my local medical centre I came face to face with the fact that Dr Google now seems to know more than my family GP. I was ushered into the consultation room where I explained my symptoms to a slightly ruffled and obviously overworked doctor. He listened attentively, nodded thoughtfully and then asked for a moment while he entered a few keywords into Google. “Right then,” he continued brightly, “what you have is …” and proceed to diagnose my ailment and prescribe the necessary to clear it up. I was taken aback. What was he doing looking it up on Google? I expected that he’d have enough experience to know what my problem was. And what if the internet was down? Would he just guess? I was reminded of this incident and my reaction to it when reading Super Crunchers . Ian Ayers’ latest book addresses this very question – what is the right use of data and how can conclusions derived ...

Notes on Johnson’s Selected Essays

These notes are ramdom personal relfections based on Selected Essays by Samuel Johnson, Penguin Classics, 2003. The Rambler (1750-52) 1. Being able to speak about any topic at the beginning of a new venture is troublesome and it is best to under promise and over deliver. An author should not boast of his talent but let his writing speak for itself. 2. The human mind moves from hope to hope rather then from pleasure to pleasure. 3. Virtue and vice are not two sides of the same coin. 6. We can’t be free from troubles but we can rise above them. Although we can never hope for total equaniminity we can strive towards it. People with little to do are troubled by small things. Rest without work is not restful. To seek happiness by changing anything but one’s own disposition is fruitless. Contemplation is essential to virtue as virtute involves long term goods. 7. Religion involves contemplating the future not enjoying the present. 8. Just as matter is 99% empty space so our lives are 99% wa...

Is the Child Wronged by Same-Sex Parenting?

Published at http://www.intellectualconservative.com/2004/08/15/is-the-child-wronged-by-same-sex-parenting August 15th, 2004 Knowing that you are the product of two people, two families, two lineages which come together in a unique manner to form you gives you a more complete understanding of who you are and where you came from. The gay community is again calling for the legalization of gay marriage. We should resist any such extension of the term marriage to include gay couples not as a matter of principle but, because it will be inextricably linked to same-sex parenting, in which the child is harmed in a very significant way. The question of same-sex parenting raises a plethora of ethical issues, from the morality of homosexuality and the reproductive rights of the parents to the welfare of the children involved. It causes us to reassess the very meaning of the terms “family,” “father,” “mother” and “offspring.” 1 Changing social mores and advances in assisted repro...

National Curriculum: A Bipartisan Bad Idea

A national curriculum involves more risks than benefits. (first published in Policy Magazine - Winter 2007) Irrespective of which party wins the next federal election, it looks as if Australia is in for a national curriculum. Education Minister Julie Bishop has taken her predecessor’s proposal for a national leaving certificate one step further and is now pushing for a national curriculum. Labor under Kevin Rudd issued a policy document supporting a national curriculum, creating a bipartisan consensus at federal level. In April this year Bishop persuaded the Labor state and territory education ministers on the Ministerial Council on Education, Employment, Training and Youth Affairs (MCEETYA) to set up working groups to consider models for national curricula.(1) In the same month the Council for the Australian Federation released a report entitled The Future of Schooling in Australia, which outlines the collective vision of the states and territories for future directions in school ref...

The Immorality of Writing Badly

Published on www.aussiecon.net , September 2006 Alain de Botton in his recent book How Proust can Change your Life points out that "An effect of reading ... is that once we've put the volume down and resumed our own life, we may attend to exactly the things which the author would have responded to had he or she been in our company." As Huxley put it in Brave New World, "You read, and you're pierced." Yes, he is talking about literature, but the more general point he is making is that what we read affects us. One implication of be Botton's observation is that writing is not a morally neutral activity. When we write, we produce a text which will deeply affect the reader. There are strict laws governing the production of food stuffs which demand that the label show all the ingredients. The aim is that the consumer may accurately ascertain the likely effect the consummation of the food product in question will have on his or her constitution. There are...

Don't Apologise for Reading Great Books

Published on www.mercatornet.com , September 2006 Children find the classics relevant and interesting if they are taught properly. Parents who wish their children to learn something of the classics of English literature at high school must be tearing their hair out in the state of Western Australia. It would be a travesty if school students were directed to study the reality television show Big Brother during the precious few hours they have in the English classroom. However the state's curriculum council has gone one better, suggesting that students study the ads screened during this program. This tragic situation is a result of the post-modern view that any text is as good as any other, that there is no absolute truth and that no books have anything meaningful to say about the human condition. Homer Simpson is thought to be as good as Homer’s Odyssey and students end up wasting precious time watching the ads screened during Big Brother when they could be studying George Orwe...

Innovation meets education - a winning formula

This is the second part of an article co-authored with Naomi Smith, first published in Sydney's Child . This year, more than ever we have seen a distinct trend towards the centralisation of education policy. The federal government, principally through its education minister Brendan Nelson, is intent on wresting the responsibility for education from the states and exerting its influence on every classroom in Australia.  Strangely enough, this policy is at odds with the Liberal’s philosophy of decentralisation, small government and deregulation. In many policy areas they recognise that competition and minimal government control is best for consumers. Take for example these comments on superannuation by Malcolm Brough, the Minister for Revenue and Assistant Treasurer in the final session of parliament for the year. Today we are here to talk about choice. … This side of the House actually believes [the Australian people] have the capability to choose for themselves, and th...